ERASE: a feasible early warning tool for elder abuse, developed for use in the Dutch emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Elder abuse is a worldwide problem with serious consequences for individuals and society. To effectively deal with elder abuse, a timely identification of signals as well as a systematic approach towards (suspected) elder abuse is necessary. This study aimed to develop and test the acceptability and appropriateness of ERASE (EldeR AbuSE) in the emergency department (ED) setting. ERASE is an early warning tool for elder abuse self-administered by the healthcare professional in patients ≥ 70 years. METHODS: A systematic literature review was previously conducted to identify potential available instruments on elder abuse for use in the ED. Furthermore, a field consultation in Dutch hospitals was performed to identify practice tools and potential questions on the recognition of elder abuse that were available in clinical practice. Based on this input, in three subsequent rounds the ERASE tool was developed. The ERASE tool was tested in a pilot feasibility study in healthcare professionals (n = 28) working in the ED in three Dutch hospitals. A semi-structured online questionnaire was used to determine acceptability and appropriateness of the ERASE tool. RESULTS: The systematic literature review revealed seven screening instruments developed for use in the hospital and/or ED setting. In total n = 32 (44%) hospitals responded to the field search. No suitable and validated instruments for the detection of elder abuse in the ED were identified. The ERASE tool was developed, with a gut feeling awareness question, that encompassed all forms of elder abuse as starting question. Subsequently six signalling questions were developed to collect information on observed signs and symptoms of elder abuse and neglect. The pilot study showed that the ERASE tool raised the recognition of healthcare professionals for elder abuse. The tool was evaluated acceptable and appropriate for use in the ED setting. CONCLUSIONS: ERASE as early warning tool is guided by an initial gut feeling awareness question and six signalling questions. The ERASE tool raised the recognition of healthcare professionals for elder abuse, and was feasible to use in the ED setting. The next step will be to investigate the reliability and validity of the ERASE early warning tool.

Delirium in older patients with COVID-19: Prevalence, risk factors and clinical outcomes across the first three waves of the pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: Delirium is a serious condition, which poses treatment challenges during hospitalisation for COVID-19. Improvements in testing, vaccination and treatment might have changed patient characteristics and outcomes through the pandemic. We evaluated whether the prevalence and risk factors for delirium, and the association of delirium with in-hospital mortality changed through the pandemic. METHODS: This study was part of the COVID-OLD study in 19 Dutch hospitals including patients ≥70 years in the first (spring 2020), second (autumn 2020) and third wave (autumn 2021). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to study risk factors for delirium, and in-hospital mortality. Differences in effect sizes between waves were studied by including interaction terms between wave and risk factor in logistic regression models. RESULTS: 1540, 884 and 370 patients were included in the first, second and third wave, respectively. Prevalence of delirium in the third wave (12.7%) was significantly lower compared to the first (22.5%) and second wave (23.5%). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, pre-existing memory problems was a consistent risk factor for delirium across waves. Previous delirium was a risk factor for delirium in the first wave (OR 4.02), but not in the second (OR 1.61) and third wave (OR 2.59, p-value interaction-term 0.028). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, delirium was not associated with in-hospital mortality in all waves. CONCLUSION: Delirium prevalence declined in the third wave, which might be the result of vaccination and improved treatment strategies. Risk factors for delirium remained consistent across waves, although some attenuation was seen in the second wave.

Characteristics and outcomes of older patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in the first and second wave of the pandemic in The Netherlands: the COVID-OLD study.

BACKGROUND: as the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic progressed diagnostics and treatment changed. OBJECTIVE: to investigate differences in characteristics, disease presentation and outcomes of older hospitalised COVID-19 patients between the first and second pandemic wave in The Netherlands. METHODS: this was a multicentre retrospective cohort study in 16 hospitals in The Netherlands including patients aged ≥ 70 years, hospitalised for COVID-19 in Spring 2020 (first wave) and Autumn 2020 (second wave). Data included Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), disease severity and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Main outcome was in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: a total of 1,376 patients in the first wave (median age 78 years, 60% male) and 946 patients in the second wave (median age 79 years, 61% male) were included. There was no relevant difference in presence of comorbidity (median CCI 2) or frailty (median CFS 4). Patients in the second wave were admitted earlier in the disease course (median 6 versus 7 symptomatic days; P < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was lower in the second wave (38.1% first wave versus 27.0% second wave; P < 0.001). Mortality risk was 40% lower in the second wave compared with the first wave (95% confidence interval: 28-51%) after adjustment for differences in patient characteristics, comorbidity, symptomatic days until admission, disease severity and frailty. CONCLUSIONS: compared with older patients hospitalised in the first COVID-19 wave, patients in the second wave had lower in-hospital mortality, independent of risk factors for mortality.The better prognosis likely reflects earlier diagnosis, the effect of improvement in treatment and is relevant for future guidelines and treatment decisions.

Frailty is associated with in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands: the COVID-OLD study.

BACKGROUND: During the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, older patients had an increased risk of hospitalisation and death. Reports on the association of frailty with poor outcome have been conflicting. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to investigate the independent association between frailty and in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands. METHODS: This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study in 15 hospitals in the Netherlands, including all patients aged ≥70 years, who were hospitalised with clinically confirmed COVID-19 between February and May 2020. Data were collected on demographics, co-morbidity, disease severity and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1,376 patients were included (median age 78 years (interquartile range 74-84), 60% male). In total, 499 (38%) patients died during hospital admission. Parameters indicating presence of frailty (CFS 6-9) were associated with more co-morbidities, shorter symptom duration upon presentation (median 4 versus 7 days), lower oxygen demand and lower levels of C-reactive protein. In multivariable analyses, the CFS was independently associated with in-hospital mortality: compared with patients with CFS 1-3, patients with CFS 4-5 had a two times higher risk (odds ratio (OR) 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-3.0)) and patients with CFS 6-9 had a three times higher risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.8-4.3)). CONCLUSIONS: The in-hospital mortality of older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands was 38%. Frailty was independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality, even though COVID-19 patients with frailty presented earlier to the hospital with less severe symptoms.

A narrative review of frailty assessment in older patients at the emergency department.

Optimizing emergency care for the aging population is an important future challenge, as the proportion of older patients at the emergency department (ED) rapidly increases. Older patients, particularly those who are frail, have a high risk of adverse outcomes after an ED visit, such as functional decline, institutionalization, and death. The ED can have a key position in identifying frail older patients who benefit most from comprehensive geriatric care [including delirium preventive measures, early evaluation of after-discharge care, and a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA)]. However, performing extensive frailty assessment is not suitable at the ED. Therefore, quick and easy-to-use instruments are needed to identify older patients at risk for adverse outcomes. This narrative review outlines the importance and complexity of frailty assessment at the ED. It aligns the available screening instruments, including clinical judgment as frailty assessment, and summarizes arguments for and against frailty assessment at the ED.

Geriatric screening, fall characteristics and 3- and 12 months adverse outcomes in older patients visiting the emergency department with a fall.

BACKGROUND: Falls in older Emergency Department (ED) patients may indicate underlying frailty. Geriatric follow-up might help improve outcomes in addition to managing the direct cause and consequence of the fall. We aimed to study whether fall characteristics and the result of geriatric screening in the ED are independently related to adverse outcomes in older patients with fall-related ED visits. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of the observational multicenter Acutely Presenting Older Patient (APOP) study, of which a subset of patients aged ≥70 years with fall-related ED visits were prospectively included in EDs of two Dutch hospitals. Fall characteristics (cause and location) were retrospectively collected. The APOP-screener was used as a geriatric screening tool. The outcome was 3- and 12-months functional decline and mortality. We assessed to what extent fall characteristics and the geriatric screening result were independent predictors of the outcome, using multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: We included 393 patients (median age 80 (IQR 76-86) years) of whom 23.0% were high risk according to screening. The cause of the fall was extrinsic (49.6%), intrinsic (29.3%), unexplained (6.4%) or missing (14.8%). A high risk geriatric screening result was related to increased risk of adverse outcomes (3-months adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.27 (1.29-3.98), 12-months AOR 2.20 (1.25-3.89)). Independent of geriatric screening result, an intrinsic cause of the fall increased the risk of 3-months adverse outcomes (AOR 1.92 (1.13-3.26)) and a fall indoors increased the risk of 3-months (AOR 2.14 (1.22-3.74)) and 12-months adverse outcomes (AOR 1.78 (1.03-3.10)). CONCLUSIONS: A high risk geriatric screening result and fall characteristics were both independently associated with adverse outcomes in older ED patients, suggesting that information on both should be evaluated to guide follow-up geriatric assessment and interventions in clinical care.

Implementation of the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screening program in routine emergency department care : A before-after study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implementation of the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screening program for older patients in routine emergency department (ED) care shortly after implementation. METHODS: We conducted an implementation study with before-after design, using the plan-do-study-act (PDSA) model for quality improvement, in the ED of a Dutch academic hospital. All consecutive patients ≥ 70 years during 2 months before and after implementation were included. The APOP program comprises screening for risk of functional decline, mortality and cognitive impairment, targeted interventions for high-risk patients and education of professionals. Outcome measures were compliance with interventions and impact on ED process, length of stay (LOS) and hospital admission rate. RESULTS: Two comparable groups of patients (median age 77 years) were included before (n = 920) and after (n = 953) implementation. After implementation 560 (59%) patients were screened of which 190 (34%) were high-risk patients. Some of the program interventions for high-risk patients in the ED were adhered to, some were not. More hospitalized patients received comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) after implementation (21% before vs. 31% after; p = 0.002). In 89% of high-risk patients who were discharged to home, telephone follow-up was initiated. Implementation did not influence median ED LOS (202 min before vs. 196 min after; p = 0.152) or hospital admission rate (40% before vs. 39% after; p = 0.410). CONCLUSION: Implementation of the APOP screening program in routine ED care did not negatively impact the ED process and resulted in an increase of CGA and telephone follow-up in older patients. Future studies should investigate whether sustainable changes in management and patient outcomes occur after more PDSA cycles.

A European Research Agenda for Geriatric Emergency Medicine: a modified Delphi study.

PURPOSE: Geriatric Emergency Medicine (GEM) focuses on delivering optimal care to (sub)acutely ill older people. This involves a multidisciplinary approach throughout the whole healthcare chain. However, the underpinning evidence base is weak and it is unclear which research questions have the highest priority. The aim of this study was to provide an inventory and prioritisation of research questions among GEM professionals throughout Europe. METHODS: A two-stage modified Delphi approach was used. In stage 1, an online survey was administered to various professionals working in GEM both in the Emergency Department (ED) and other healthcare settings throughout Europe to make an inventory of potential research questions. In the processing phase, research questions were screened, categorised, and validated by an expert panel. Subsequently, in stage 2, remaining research questions were ranked based on relevance using a second online survey administered to the same target population, to identify the top 10 prioritised research questions. RESULTS: In response to the first survey, 145 respondents submitted 233 potential research questions. A total of 61 research questions were included in the second stage, which was completed by 176 respondents. The question with the highest priority was: Is implementation of elements of CGA (comprehensive geriatric assessment), such as screening for frailty and geriatric interventions, effective in improving outcomes for older patients in the ED? CONCLUSION: This study presents a top 10 of high-priority research questions for a European Research Agenda for Geriatric Emergency Medicine. The list of research questions may serve as guidance for researchers, policymakers and funding bodies in prioritising future research projects.

Feasibility and acceptability of the 'Acutely Presenting Older Patient' screener in routine emergency department care.

BACKGROUND: risk stratification tools for older patients in the emergency department (ED) have rarely been implemented successfully in routine care. OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of the 'Acutely Presenting Older Patient' (APOP) screener, which identifies older ED patients at the highest risk of adverse outcomes within 2 minutes at presentation. DESIGN AND SETTING: 2-month prospective cohort study, after the implementation of the APOP screener in ED routine care in the Leiden University Medical Center. SUBJECTS: all consecutive ED patients aged ≥70 years. METHODS: feasibility of screening was assessed by measuring the screening rate and by identifying patient- and organisation-related determinants of screening completion. Acceptability was assessed by collecting experienced barriers of screening completion from triage-nurses. RESULTS: we included 953 patients with a median age of 77 (IQR 72-82) years, of which 560 (59%) patients were screened. Patients had a higher probability of being screened when they had a higher age (OR 1.03 (95%CI 1.01-1.06), P = 0.017). Patients had a lower probability of being screened when they were triaged very urgent (OR 0.55 (0.39-0.78), P = 0.001) or when the number of patients upon arrival was high (OR 0.63 (0.47-0.86), P = 0.003). Experienced barriers of screening completion were patient-related ('patient was too sick'), organisation-related ('ED was too busy') and personnel-related ('forgot to complete screening'). CONCLUSION: with more than half of all older patients screened, feasibility and acceptability of screening in routine ED care is very promising. To further improve screening completion, solutions are needed for patients who present with high urgency and during ED rush hours.

Geriatric Screening, Triage Urgency, and 30-Day Mortality in Older Emergency Department Patients.

BACKGROUND: Urgency triage in the emergency department (ED) is important for early identification of potentially lethal conditions and extensive resource utilization. However, in older patients, urgency triage systems could be improved by taking geriatric vulnerability into account. We investigated the association of geriatric vulnerability screening in addition to triage urgency levels with 30-day mortality in older ED patients. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the observational multicenter Acutely Presenting Older Patient (APOP) study. SETTING: EDs within four Dutch hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive patients, aged 70 years or older, who were prospectively included. MEASUREMENTS: Patients were triaged using the Manchester Triage System (MTS). In addition, the APOP screener was used as a geriatric screening tool. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Comparison was made between mortality within the geriatric high- and low-risk screened patients in every urgency triage category. We calculated the difference in explained variance of mortality by adding the geriatric screener (APOP) to triage urgency (MTS) by calculating Nagelkerke R2 . RESULTS: We included 2,608 patients with a median age of 79 (interquartile range = 74-84) years, of whom 521 (20.0%) patients were categorized as high risk according to geriatric screening. Patients were triaged on urgency as standard (27.2%), urgent (58.5%), and very urgent (14.3%). In total, 132 (5.1%) patients were deceased within a period of 30 days. Within every urgency triage category, 30-day mortality was threefold higher in geriatric high-risk compared to low-risk patients (overall = 11.7% vs 3.4%; P < .001). The explained variance of 30-day mortality with triage urgency was 1.0% and increased to 6.3% by adding the geriatric screener. CONCLUSION: Combining triage urgency with geriatric screening has the potential to improve triage, which may help clinicians to deliver early appropriate care to older ED patients. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1755-1762, 2020.

[Screening for vulnerability in older adults attending the emergency department]. / Screening op kwetsbaarheid bij ouderen op de SEH.

Acutely ill older adults are at high risk of adverse health outcomes, including loss of function, loss of independence, and mortality. Screening instruments may aid the identification of older adults who are at high risk of negative health outcomes. An extensive geriatric examination, by means of the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), and fit-for-purpose interventions, such as drawing an inventory of the required aftercare, instructions upon discharge, and Advance Care Planning (ACP) can all contribute to improved outcomes. The implementation of screening for vulnerability in the emergency department requires a tailored approach. The current screening instruments differ in terms of target population, moment of application, outcome measures and predictive properties. The APOP screener has been developed and validated in Dutch hospitals. A screening instrument is always part of a broader repertoire, such as education, awareness, adjustment of care processes and protocols, and implementation of appropriate interventions, all aimed at improving outcomes for acutely ill older adults.

The association between intravenous fluid resuscitation and mortality in older emergency department patients with suspected infection.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies suggest that hypotension thresholds in current guidelines might be too low for older patients due to arterial stiffening, possibly leading to insufficient fluid resuscitation. We compared intravenous (IV) fluid volumes that older (≥ 70 years) and younger (< 70 years) patients with suspected infection with similar initial systolic blood pressure (SBP) received in the emergency department (ED) and investigated whether this was associated with in-hospital mortality in older patients. METHODS: This was an observational multicenter study using an existing database in which consecutive ED patients hospitalized with suspected infection were prospectively included. We first compared the fluid volumes older and younger ED patients received per initial SBP category. Patients were then stratified into two SBP categories (≤ or > 120 mmHg; 120 has been suggested to be a better threshold) and thereafter into three fluid volume categories: 0-1 L, 1-2 L, or > 2 L. In each SBP and fluid category, case-mix-adjusted in-hospital mortality was compared between older and younger patients, using multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The included 981 (37%) older and 1678 (63%) younger ED patients received similar IV fluid volumes per initial SBP category. Older patients with an initial SBP > 120 mmHg had a higher adjusted OR of 2.06 (95% CI 1.02-4.16), in the 0-1 L category, while this association was not found in the higher fluid categories of 1-2 L or > 2 L. In the SBP ≤ 120 mmHg category, this association was also absent. CONCLUSION: This hypothesis-generating study suggests that older patients with suspected infection may need higher fluid volumes than younger patients, when having a seemingly normal initial SBP.

Vital signs and impaired cognition in older emergency department patients: The APOP study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Cognitive impairment is a frequent problem among older patients attending the Emergency Department (ED) and can be the result of pre-existing cognitive impairment, delirium, or neurologic disorders. Another cause can also be acute disturbance of brain perfusion and oxygenation, which may be reversed by optimal resuscitation. This study aimed to assess the relationship between vital signs, as a measure of acute hemodynamic changes, and cognitive impairment in older ED patients. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: ED's of two tertiary care and two secondary care hospitals in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: 2629 patients aged 70-years and older. MEASUREMENTS: Vital signs were measured at the moment of ED arrival as part of routine clinical care. Cognition was measured using the Six-Item Cognitive Impairment Test (6-CIT). RESULTS: The median age of patients was 78 years (IQR 74-84). Cognitive impairment was present in 738 patients (28.1%). When comparing lowest with highest quartiles, a systolic blood pressure of <129 mmHg (OR 1.30, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.98-1.73)was associated with increased risk of cognitive impairment. A higher respiratory rate (>21/min) was associated with increased risk of impaired cognition (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.58-2.95) as well as oxygen saturation of <95% (OR 1.64, 95%CI 1.24-2.19). CONCLUSION: Abnormal vital signs associated with decreased brain perfusion and oxygenation are also associated with cognitive impairment in older ED patients. This may partially be explained by the association between disease severity and delirium, but also by acute disturbance of brain perfusion and oxygenation. Future studies should establish whether normalization of vital signs will also acutely improve cognition.

CAM-ICU may not be the optimal screening tool for early delirium screening in older emergency department patients: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Delirium is a frequent problem among older patients in the emergency department (ED) and early detection is important to prevent its associated adverse outcomes. Several screening tools for delirium have been proposed for the ED, such as the 6-Item Cognitive Impairment Test (6-CIT) and the Confusion Assessment Method-ICU (CAM-ICU). Previous validation of the CAM-ICU for use in the ED showed varying results, possibly because it was administered at different or unknown time points. The aim was to study the prevalence of delirium in older ( ≥ 70 years) ED patients using the CAM-ICU and 6-CIT. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: A prospective cohort study was carried out in one tertiary care and one secondary care hospital in the Netherlands. Patients aged 70 years and older attending the ED were included. Delirium screening was performed within 1 h after ED registration using the CAM-ICU. The 6-CIT was determined for comparison using a cut-off point of at least 14 points indicating possible delirium. RESULTS: A total of 997 patients were included in the study, with a median age of 78 years (interquartile range 74-84). Delirium as assessed with CAM-ICU was positive in only 13 (1.3%, 95% confidence interval: 0.8-2.2) patients. Ninety-five (9.5% 95% confidence interval: 7.9-11.5) patients had 6-CIT more than or equal to 14. CONCLUSION: We found a delirium prevalence of 1.3% using the CAM-ICU, which was much lower than the expected prevalence of around 10% as being frequently reported in the literature and what we found when using the 6-CIT. On the basis of these results, caution is warranted to use the CAM-ICU for early screening in the ED.

Determinants of self-rated health in older adults before and 3 months after an emergency department visit: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: Self-rated health (SRH) is an important patient-reported outcome, but little is known about SRH after a visit to the emergency department (ED). We investigated the determinants of decline in SRH during 3 months after an ED visit in older patients. DESIGN: This was a multicenter prospective cohort study including acutely presenting older ( ≥ 70 years) patients in the ED (the Netherlands). Patients were asked to self-rate their health between 0 and 10. The main outcome was a decline in SRH defined as a transition of a SRH of at least 6 to a SRH of less than 6, 3 months after the patient's visit to the ED. RESULTS: Three months after the ED visit, 870 (71.4%) patients had a stable SRH and 209 (11.5%) patients declined in SRH. Independent predictors with a decline in SRH were: male gender (OR 1.83) living alone (OR 1.56), living in residential care or nursing home (OR 2.75), number of different medications (OR 1.08), using a walking device (OR 1.70), and the Katz-ADL score (OR 1.22). Patients with functional decline 3 months after an ED visit show a steeper decline in the mean SRH (0.68 points) than patients with no functional decline (0.12 points, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Decline in SRH after an ED visit in older patients is at least partly dependent on factors of functional capacity and functional decline. Preventive interventions to maintain functional status may be the solution to maintain SRH, but more research is needed to further improve and firmly establish the clinical usability of these findings.

The Six-Item Cognitive Impairment Test Is Associated with Adverse Outcomes in Acutely Hospitalized Older Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study.

AIM: The study aim was to investigate whether cognitive impairment, measured by the Six-Item Cognitive Impairment Test (6-CIT), is an independent predictor of adverse outcomes in acutely hospitalized older patients. METHODS: This was a prospective multicenter study including acutely hospitalized patients aged 70 years and older. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate whether impaired cognition (6-CIT ≥11 points) was an independent predictor of 90-day adverse outcome, a composite measure of functional decline and mortality. Secondary endpoints were hospital length of stay, new institutionalization, and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: In total, 196 (15.6%) of 1,252 included patients had a 6-CIT ≥11. Median age was 80 years (interquartile range 74-85). Patients with impaired cognition had higher rates of 90-day adverse outcome (41.7% compared to 30.3% in 1,056 not cognitively impaired patients, p = 0.009). Impaired cognition was a predictor of 90-day adverse outcome with a crude odds ratio (OR) of 1.64 (95% CI 1.13-2.39), but statistical significance was lost when fully corrected for possible confounders (OR 1.44, 95% CI 0.98-2.11). For all secondary outcomes, impaired cognition was an independent predictor. CONCLUSIONS: In the acute hospital setting, the 6-CIT is associated with 90-day adverse outcome and is an independent predictor of hospital length of stay, new institutionalization, and in-hospital mortality.

Predictors and Outcomes of Revisits in Older Adults Discharged from the Emergency Department.

OBJECTIVES: To study predictors of emergency department (ED) revisits and the association between ED revisits and 90-day functional decline or mortality. DESIGN: Multicenter cohort study. SETTING: One academic and two regional Dutch hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults discharged from the ED (N=1,093). MEASUREMENTS: At baseline, data on demographic characteristics, illness severity, and geriatric parameters (cognition, functional capacity) were collected. All participants were prospectively followed for an unplanned revisit within 30 days and for functional decline and mortality 90 days after the initial visit. RESULTS: The median age was 79 (interquartile range 74-84), and 114 participants (10.4%) had an ED revisit within 30 days of discharge. Age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.92-0.99), male sex (HR=1.61, 95% CI=1.05-2.45), polypharmacy (HR=2.06, 95% CI=1.34-3.16), and cognitive impairment (HR=1.71, 95% CI=1.02-2.88) were independent predictors of a 30-day ED revisit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict an ED revisit was 0.65 (95% CI=0.60-0.70). In a propensity score-matched analysis, individuals with an ED revisit were at higher risk (odds ratio=1.99 95% CI=1.06-3.71) of functional decline or mortality. CONCLUSION: Age, male sex, polypharmacy, and cognitive impairment were independent predictors of a 30-day ED revisit, but no useful clinical prediction model could be developed. However, an early ED revisit is a strong new predictor of adverse outcomes in older adults.

Early prediction of hospital admission for emergency department patients: a comparison between patients younger or older than 70 years.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop models that predict hospital admission to ED of patients younger and older than 70 and compare their performance. METHODS: Prediction models were derived in a retrospective observational study of all patients≥18 years old visiting the ED of a university hospital during the first 6 months of 2012. Patients were stratified into two age groups (<70 years old and ≥70 years old). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of hospital admission among factors available immediately after patient arrival to the ED. Validation of the prediction models was performed on patients presenting to the ED during the second half of the year 2012. RESULTS: 10 807 patients were included in the derivation and 10 480 in the validation cohorts. The strongest independent predictors of hospital admission among the 8728 patients <70 years old were age, sex, triage category, mode of arrival, performance of blood tests, chief complaint, ED revisit, type of specialist, phlebotomised blood sample and all vital signs. The area under the curve (AUC) of the validation cohort for those <70 years old was 0.86 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.87). Among the 2079 patients ≥70 years, the same factors were predictive, except for gender, type of specialist and heart rate; the AUC was 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.79). The prediction models could identify a group of 10% of patients with the highest risk in whom hospital admission was predicted at ED triage, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 71% (95% CI 68% to 74%) in younger patients and PPV of 87% (95% CI 81% to 92%) in older patients. CONCLUSION: Demographic and clinical factors readily available early in the ED visit can be useful in identifying patients who are likely to be admitted to the hospital. While the model for the younger patients had a higher AUC, the model for older patients had a higher PPV in identifying the patients at highest risk for admission. Of note, heart rate was not a useful predictor in the older patients.

The most commonly used disease severity scores are inappropriate for risk stratification of older emergency department sepsis patients: an observational multi-centre study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis recognition in older emergency department (ED) patients is difficult due to atypical symptom presentation. We therefore investigated whether the prognostic and discriminative performance of the five most commonly used disease severity scores were appropriate for risk stratification of older ED sepsis patients (≥70 years) compared to a younger control group (<70 years). METHODS: This was an observational multi-centre study using an existing database in which ED patients who were hospitalized with a suspected infection were prospectively included. Patients were stratified by age < 70 and ≥70 years. We assessed the association with in-hospital mortality (primary outcome) and the area under the curve (AUC) with receiver operator characteristics of the Predisposition, Infection, Response, Organ dysfunction (PIRO), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Mortality in ED Sepsis (MEDS), and the Modified and National Early Warning (MEWS and NEWS) scores. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 9.5% ((95%-CI); 7.4-11.5) in the 783 included older patients, and 4.6% (3.6-5.7) in the 1497 included younger patients. In contrast to younger patients, disease severity scores in older patients associated poorly with mortality. The AUCs of all disease severity scores were poor and ranged from 0.56 to 0.64 in older patients, significantly lower than the good AUC range from 0.72 to 0.86 in younger patients. The MEDS had the best AUC (0.64 (0.57-0.71)) in older patients. In older and younger patients, the newly proposed qSOFA score (Sepsis 3.0) had a lower AUC than the PIRO score (sepsis 2.0). CONCLUSION: The prognostic and discriminative performance of the five most commonly used disease severity scores was poor and less useful for risk stratification of older ED sepsis patients.